Dear new riders,
I'd like to save you some time and effort. If the fastest you can go when you're time trialing is 22 mph, and the group you're riding in is going 23 mph, you will not be successful in your attempt at a solo breakaway. This is not an attempt to insult your abilities or desire. Its what we in the business refer to as "simple math".
I may have ridden around the Tuesday night course ( what some of you people refer to was Wednesday Worlds) more than any other human being. This will be my 20th year riding there, plus I used to to intervals over there up to two times a week for about 5 years. There have been times when I've been under a great deal of stress where I break out of some trace and find myself driving my car around the that loop for comfort, like a baby and his woobie. Ok that's not true, I'm just saying that I'm familiar with the route.
The A group goes around that loop on average around 8 minute laps. That's 24.75 mph. The fastest lap I've even done it solo, in training, is 7:50 and that was 1 lap, fresh and with aero bars. So I long ago recognized that a solo effort is obviously impossible. Seeing as the final lap is typically the fastest, you'd really need to be able to ride about a 7:30 ( 26.4) to 7:45 (25.6) final lap in order to hold off the group. For perspective, that would be a 57:30 40KM TT.
Based on the last two years time trial results, the only local riders who would come close to being able to do that would be (in order) Clayton Barrows, Mike Whitaker, Brian Trdina, and Steve May. If you don't see your name on that list, then your chances are grim.
Of course a collective effort is a different story all together. If you can get three or more guys working together then you have a shot. But even that combination needs a few things.
* All the guys still need to be able to roll it pretty damn fast ( 25+)
* All the guys need to actually commit to riding without screwing around
* All the guys need to have some rudimentary idea of how to paceline without accelerating too quickly or pulling off to the wrong side.
Oh yeah, the break cannot have a Spinners/GS Lancaster presented by Thru-It-All(tm) rider in it. The only thing that makes that team chase a breakaway faster is if it has one of its own teammates in it.
So to recap; If you want to win Wednesday Worlds, either
A)be Brian Trdina or
B)wait for the sprint and hope Shebelsky gets a flat.